Kirsty, the Holyrood baby, turns nine

“Right, off you go, I have to get to work,” says Caley, smiling as she gently disentangles herself from her daughter Kirsty’s fierce hug. It’s 7.30am and they are outside Kirsty’s primary school breakfast club. “I love you mum,” says Kirsty, loud enough for Caley but not so loud that Jack Logan from her class can hear as he goes into the club. Caley watches through the window as Kirsty greets a club volunteer and heads over to her usual table, where her friend Nadia is eating cereal. No sign of school phobia today, thinks Caley as she heads off.

There’s that feeling again: calm, wellbeing, whatever you want to call it. After the year they’ve had, Caley wouldn’t have thought it possible she could feel this way. The challenges still feel overwhelming sometimes, but now she has a job and Kirsty seems more settled, she’s daring to hope for a better future.

Kirsty is the “Holyrood baby”, a fictional child born in a deprived area of Scotland on the day of the Holyrood election in 2016. Charting the progress of Kirsty and Caley over the last nine years has allowed us to consider how far politicians have fulfilled their promises to improve the lives of children living in poverty.

The last few years have been difficult for mother and daughter. Caley struggled badly with depression after Kirsty was born. Then she lost her dad Dave, Kirsty’s granddad, to Covid-19. The cost-of-living crisis was devastating for their wee family, and they are still hammered by high prices, with Kirsty missing out not only on clubs and trips out but, thanks to energy costs, having a warm home.

But last summer, with support from the employability service and with her mum Jackie providing childcare, Caley was able to get a job. She now works in a cafe in a local shopping centre. For Kirsty, though, going into P5 brought new tribulations which built into a crisis that almost derailed Caley’s job.

There’s always been disruptive behaviour in Kirsty’s class, but it got worse when she entered P5, with two boys in particular being violent and verbally abusive. One of the boys targeted Kirsty, among others, threatening her and calling her names. Once he threw a book at her. Her teacher made the boy have a “restorative conversation” where he had to apologise, but it made no difference. Seeing that the boys faced no real consequences for their actions, other children in the class became more disruptive too.

Kirsty no longer felt safe. Caley knows Kirsty has always been prone to anxiety, but she started visibly dreading school. Some days she just refused to go. The progress she had been making with reading and writing ground to a halt.

Joseph Holmes, a qualified social worker who runs a children’s home for the charity Young Foundations, part of the Scottish Children’s Services Coalition, believes that classroom instability like this is contributing to poor mental health among children. He says: “You have children who are overwhelmed by the classroom environment and are acting out but there is not a solution to how we make it safe for the majority.

“You have got dysregulated children in classrooms who are unable to manage it for whatever reason and that causes huge anxiety among the staff and among the children to the point we see record numbers of non-attendance.”

He adds: “It’s the low-level neurodivergent children, it’s the sensitive children, they are the ones who suffer the most.”

Mike Corbett, the NASUWT Scotland teaching union national official, says that violent and disruptive behaviour was a significant issue pre-pandemic, but there’s no doubt things have deteriorated. Eighty-three per cent of NASUWT Scotland members reported in a January survey that behaviour problems had worsened in the previous 12 months, after reporting increases in previous years too. Primary and secondary schools are both affected.

He says: “The majority of kids are well-behaved and want to do well but the proportion of kids who are causing problems, who are swearing and shouting and fighting and throwing things, has definitely increased. There’s no doubt that in some schools the silent majority of kids are silent because that smaller group rule the roost.”

Scotland has the resources to deliver the right support for families, to alleviate poverty, but it must be delivered around each family’s needs

He points to an “over-reliance” on restorative conversations and “a lack of appropriate consequences” for serious behaviour like swearing, violence, bullying or racism.

Many headteachers have become reluctant to use exclusions, following a drive historically to reduce them, fearing criticism if they do. Corbett says it’s helpful that the Cabinet Secretary for Education, Jenny Gilruth, has stressed that schools may use exclusions and should if the circumstances demand it, though it should be a rarity.

Firmer responses to poor behaviour are not enough, though. The number of children with additional support needs (ASN) has increased from five per cent in 2007 to 41 per cent today, and while the overall spend on ASN has gone up, spend per pupil has dropped significantly. Teachers have less time to spend with each child who has additional needs.

This is why maintaining teacher numbers is vital even if school rolls fall, says Corbett. “For Kirsty, that could mean there’s an extra teacher to take her out and give her a bit more help with her work or to take the two disruptive boys out of the class so she can get on with her work with the rest of the class that day.”

The NASUWT also believes that the presumption of mainstream education for children with ASN, while a “noble aspiration”, is not appropriate for all children and wants the policy to be reviewed.

Kirsty’s school has spent its Pupil Equity Fund money (allocated according to the level of free school meal entitlement) on providing the free breakfast club. There isn’t enough left for more teachers. Still, things finally improved when, after months of abusive behaviour, the boy who targeted Kirsty was finally excluded. He is now back, but for now at least, doesn’t push things so far. Behaviour overall has improved, and Kirsty’s anxiety has lessened a bit.

This has helped Caley. She likes her job. She feels more in control of her life, and she loves being in a team, but she’s on the minimum wage and the financial benefits have been undermined by paying back debt, much of it public debt in the form of council tax arrears.

With Kirsty in distress, Caley thought about giving up her job, but she was referred by her GP community link worker to Aberlour Children’s Charity’s family support team and they’ve helped her keep her on track. They were alongside her when she spoke to her employer, requesting flexible working to support Kirsty. They also helped her manage her debt.

A support worker asked Kirsty what she enjoys doing and she said “art”. Now Jackie takes Kirsty to an art class on Saturday mornings while Caley is working. Caley is pleased to be able to pay the small fee.

Lynne O’Brien, chief officer at Aberlour, says: “The key question for families like Caley and Kirsty’s is, what does ‘good’ look like from their perspective? If we really listen to what is important to Caley and collectively respond to that, that’s where it makes a difference.

There’s no doubt that in some schools the silent majority of kids are silent because the smaller disruptive group rule the roost

“Children have the right to grow up free of poverty. Scotland has the resources to deliver the right support for families, to alleviate poverty, but it must be delivered around each family’s needs.

“I’ve seen families where there is significant crisis, the children are about to be removed, and within a few months, with the right support things change and they start to become central to that change.

“We’ve got the resources. If they’re just applied in the right way it’s a gamechanger, people can then participate in the life they want to have.”

Sean Duffy, chief executive at The Wise Group, a social enterprise that aims to mentor people out of poverty, agrees: “Along with Aberlour, we’re serious about ending household and child poverty. We need to move beyond piecemeal policy and fund what works: trusted relationships, whole-family support and early intervention that prevents crisis. Scotland has the tools – now it needs the courage to reform how support is delivered, not just what is delivered.”

First Minister John Swinney has made child poverty his priority, but a 2024 interim target has been missed and there is little prospect of reducing child poverty to 10 per cent by 2030, from 22 per cent now. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation says 80,000 children are in “very deep poverty”, with household income on average 54 per cent below the poverty line.

Campaigners welcome the Scottish Government’s mitigation of the two-child benefits limit and want to see it abolished by the UK Government, along with the benefits cap. Alongside employability, childcare support, family support and wider provision of free school meals, they want more action on public debt and “significant” further investment in the Scottish Child Payment by Scottish ministers.

The UK Government is under pressure to act on child poverty, after a department for work and pensions forecast suggested 50,000 more children could be in poverty by 2030 because of welfare reforms announced in March.

Times are still tough, but Caley is relieved – and proud – to be bringing in money, even if it’s not much. Things are still precarious, but for once she doesn’t feel entirely powerless.