Climbing the wall: Prospects for SNP and Labour

‘Heart racing’… ‘nail biting’… ‘life changing.’

The phrases adorned bright orange billboards flagging one side of the road tapering up to the International Climbing Arena. Though erected long in advance, hundreds of SNP activists flocking to the facility at Ratho on the outskirts of Edinburgh could have been forgiven for thinking they’d been thrown up especially for their arrival.

Inside, the 30-metre high climbing walls encircling the stage – the bright yellow backdrop to which screamed ‘Stronger for Scotland’ – presented sketchwriters with an unenviable stream of hackneyed metaphors. Chatter among guests soon erupted into frenzied applause as SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon appeared unannounced at the back, pausing on the spot for all of 10 to 15 seconds as her audience – now on their feet – roared. 

As far as manifesto launches go, this one did not feel like the run-of-the-mill kind. In some ways, it felt excessive, too celebratory. In others, though, it served as a message to all those watching from across the UK: the SNP expect to be heard.

Though a party of government in Scotland these last eight years, their clout at Westminster has been diminished by the fact only six SNP MPs sit on the green benches. Their 19.9 per cent vote share in 2010 failed to deliver top target seats, including Dundee West.

According to latest constituency polling by former Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, Labour are set to lose that seat with a swing to the SNP of 27 per cent. If the polls play out today, it will be one among many.

“What has come to fruition, if you like, is the pretty consistent SNP line [of protecting Scotland’s interests] that perhaps hasn’t been seen as that relevant in previous elections but, because of the electoral arithmetic, becoming very relevant now,” says Ewan Crawford, a lecturer at the University of the West of Scotland and former special adviser to the Scottish Government.

The story of this general election, however, is one in which the fortunes of the SNP and Scottish Labour have been intertwined. 

Once-upon-a-time-safe-seats in Labour heartlands look set to be swept away by an SNP surge. Not only has the Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy faced a fight on his hands in East Renfrewshire, several members of Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet, including Margaret Curran and Douglas Alexander, have had their hands full fending off political rookies, in the latter’s case a 20-year-old student.

“The nature of Labour’s position has been hidden to a large extent by the electoral system”

“Although their majorities are huge in some of the Labour seats, I think, actually, they’re likely to fall more quickly because a) there is no tactical voting, and b) they are areas which are more likely to have had more Yes voters,” says Ipsos MORI Scotland research director, Mark Diffley. “All those things conspire against Labour and I suspect some of these seats that looked impregnable and absolutely beyond the reach of anyone other than Labour, that may not prove to be the case.”

The referendum, though relevant, is not the full explanation, underlines Diffley. The proportion of Scots voting Labour at Holyrood dropped from 39 per cent in 1999 to 29 per cent in 2011. At Westminster, their vote share slipped from 46 per cent in 1997 to 40 per cent in 2005, recovering slightly in 2010, an outcome credited, in part, to Gordon Brown’s popularity north of the border.

“The nature of Labour’s position has been hidden to a large extent by the electoral system,” adds James Mitchell, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Edinburgh, citing devolution as a “bridge” for the SNP to attract votes that they would not otherwise have attracted.

Professor Richard Rose of the University of Strathclyde suggests Labour have been “mad” to put more emphasis on efforts in Scotland. “To beat the Tories, they need to win seats in the south of England,” he says.

It is with some irony, therefore, that a party which looks set to haemorrhage votes from Labour in Scotland could – if the cards fall the way polls have suggested – be its only hope of holding power within the UK. Anything tied with Labour and the SNP in terms of post-election pacts is a “slip knot”, though, according to Rose.

“If Labour says to the nationalists, ‘here is a blank sheet of paper, what do you want?’ what the nationalists have to do – privately, not on paper – is think about their exit strategy – how do you get out from backing a Labour government. And the first incentive is before Easter next year because you’ve got a May election for Holyrood. I’ve seen some improbable political alliances but how the SNP could back a Labour government in London and fight a Labour party in Scotland and be united, they’re asking for many problems.”

Labour is, after all, not the only one expected to come out of this election with challenges on their hands. Mitchell warns disillusionment could set in amongst an SNP membership that has seen a four-fold increase since the referendum if the margin of victory is less comprehensive than polls have implied. If a breakthrough does materialise, whilst of course positive for the party, there is the question of how a large group of SNP MPs cohere.

A “remarkable degree of self-discipline” exists within the Holyrood ranks, though more independent thinking would, Mitchell argues, be desirable at Westminster. “I think it’s never healthy for a political party to act as adherently over the long haul as, frankly, the SNP has been doing in recent years – I think it was one of the problems for New Labour.”

Former Prime Minister Sir John Major emerged in the final few weeks to warn a Labour Government supported by the SNP would see it “open to a daily dose of political blackmail”. Twenty-four hours earlier, Sturgeon had went out of her way to insist that SNP MPs were not going to Westminster to be in any way “destructive or disruptive”.

Suggestions contrary to such epitomise a “misreading” of SNP strategy, claims Crawford, pointing to the fact the party has performed well at Holyrood when deemed to be a competent government.

“Long term, if the SNP is to have a big breakthrough and if it’s to be around for a while, what does that say to the English electorate?"

As has been seen in the last few weeks, though, much of the discussion has been on what lies in store for Scotland’s constitutional future. History suggests a large contingent of SNP MPs will hasten the devolution of further powers, according to Crawford.

“Westminster does seem to react to SNP strength in terms of proposing further powers, so I think it would be very difficult for the Westminster parties, if the SNP put [on] a strong showing, not to go further in terms of the constitution.”

That increase in numbers within the House of Commons, he argues, does not equate to a route to independence.

There are lessons for both sides, though. Mitchell believes painting the SNP south of the border as “the scary, scary beast” is “not particularly smart politics” in terms of long-term planning. “I can certainly see why there might be short-term gain,” he says.

“Long term, if the SNP is to have a big breakthrough and if it’s to be around for a while, what does that say to the English electorate? ‘This lot up there voted for this party that are taking Scotland in that direction, they’re after your money and all the rest of it’.

"How do the English public react? How would you react to that message? You would think my country is splitting up and that contributes to the break-up of Britain. It is not just about the constitutional break-up; it is about other kinds of break-ups, including the sense of Scotland and England as a union in terms of mindsets and how we think and operate.”

As for the SNP, putting another referendum in their 2016 manifesto would be “foolish”, he claims.

“If there was to be a referendum in a couple of years’ time or so, at the moment my expectation is there would be a lower vote for independence. I think the public do not want another one yet [but] they may want one in the future. Now things could change but what I would suggest is that any interpretation of the result we will get in this election – if the SNP wins up [to] 40/50 MPs – as signalling, ‘yes, let’s go for another referendum’, I think that would be a great mistake on the SNP’s part and they would suffer.”

Given the loudest cheer of the SNP’s manifesto launch followed Sturgeon’s acknowledgment that “the SNP will always support independence” – effectively cutting her off before she could add “this election is not about independence” – the party could face a tricky tightrope if it is to be all things to all voters.