The just transition has been nothing short of a failure

The first meeting of the taskforce established to respond to Mossmorran’s closure was described by the UK Government’s industry minister, Chris McDonald, as “just the start” of efforts to support workers and to “find a viable future for the site”.

The question is, why? Why was this just the start of planning for a closure that everyone knew would come, sooner or later? Why are ministers only now stepping in to help the workforce and local community? Why has it taken an emergency situation to develop before governments are choosing to react?

Less than a week after the taskforce met, ExxonMobil confirmed production had ceased at the Fife ethylene plant.

This seems to be a running theme for this so-called just transition to net zero. Warning flags have been waving for years and the requirement for the transition to have proper, meticulous planning is broadly acknowledged. And yet so little has actually been done to ensure what is needed is in place well in advance of difficult announcements. This is nothing short of a failure by both of Scotland’s governments.

The Scottish Government committed to publishing a just transition plan for Mossmorran back in April 2024. Then-net zero secretary Mairi McAllan confirmed it would be the next site to be given a tailored plan after Grangemouth, to be developed in partnership with the site owners, workers and local community.

Almost two years on and that plan is nowhere to be seen. When pushed on it at the FMQs following ExxonMobil’s announcement in November, First Minister John Swinney sidestepped the question, did not provide a timeline for when it would be available, and instead only offered some warm words about it being “vital we take forward measures to ensure a just transition”. Again, where are those measures?

Meanwhile, the UK Government appears to have done even less. McDonald told the Commons that the government had been in discussion with ExxonMobil about the plant’s “operating environment” since April 2025 and had “endeavoured to meet Exxon every week” between August and November. This decision, he said, was a commercial one and the challenges faced by the company were “ultimately insurmountable”.

While that all may be true, it does not exempt the government from its responsibilities of making broader preparations for Fife. Ministers may not have been able to step in to support the plant – nor would they necessarily want to, if it was in such a poor state of financial affairs – but they should have been proactive in creating an environment in which, when the inevitable news came, there was a smooth transition to new industries and workers were not just left at a cliff edge.

Support being provided now is welcome. The Scottish Government’s £9m over three years to provide employability assistance will mean many families will survive this blow, and the UK Government’s involvement in finding a buyer for the site could still turn things around for the local community.

But we’ve been here before. Just 25 miles away, Grangemouth is still reeling from its own unjust transition after Scotland’s last oil refinery closed last year. As with Mossmorran, the need for a proper plan had been known for years and yet nothing was done. The Scottish Government’s just transition plan for the area came out months too late. UK ministers can blame the previous government for some of the failure, but it’s also clear that action was not taken quickly enough when Labour came to power, given the urgency of the situation.

Announcements around Project Willow and other investment and support for the industrial complex have been positive, but they are still not enough to ensure a smooth transition. People have already lost their livelihoods, and jobs in the new economy are not being created quickly enough to keep pace. This is true in Grangemouth and across Scotland.

So, when people and communities reliant on high-carbon industries see what is happening in Fife and Grangemouth, what conclusion are they meant to draw?

Support for climate action and moving to a net zero economy remains high – for now. But it can’t be long until we reach a tipping point, where enough communities have been ruined by the lack of action by those in power that they turn against the transition itself. Reform and the Conservatives are counting on that already, the former always against the net zero agenda and the latter turning their back on it now they sense an electoral advantage.

Those in power have to now work at speed to prove the transition can indeed be just, well-planned and not devasting to communities. Time is running out, both in terms of our rapidly warming planet and on public support for doing something about it.

McDonald concluded his Commons statement by reiterating to the Mossmorran workforce that “the closure of this site is no reflection on them, their efforts, or their work”. The same cannot be said for politicians who are failing to create the environment for a truly just transition.