Indyref2: If not now, then when?

Earlier this month in one of Leith’s trendy art galleries, John Swinney took to the stage in front of party members and the media to deliver his route to a referendum. 

His plan does not offer a clear path – there isn’t one without the permission of the UK Government. However, he crystallised what a vote for the SNP means at this election.   

In short, a majority of SNP seats – only achieved once before by Alex Salmond in 2011 – at next year’s Scottish Parliament election in May would be sufficient for his government to make the case to Westminster that Scotland has voted in favour of holding another referendum, the first minister is arguing. It’s a decoupling from some people’s assertion that a mandate for a referendum already exists, based on the election results at Holyrood since Scotland voted on independence 11 years ago.   

Raising the bar to a majority of SNP seats, as opposed to pro-independence seats, is an important distinction to make. With little concession to be expected by the UK Government, nor any from a prospective government, Swinney is being as clear as possible to the electorate – a vote for the SNP in May is a vote to decide again on Scotland’s future. 

Recent polling by More in Common and analysis by Ballot Box Scotland suggests the SNP may only be two seats away from a majority at Holyrood. So, perhaps Swinney’s plan may not be out of the realm of possibility in eight months, but there’s no denying it is a big gamble, and if they fail to return a majority, it would be fair to conclude that now is not the time for another referendum.    

Polling shows that independence is not the majority of people’s number one priority, falling behind key issues such as health and education, but polls have also shown over the years since the last referendum that around half of Scots are in favour of independence.  

It’s important that throughout the campaign Swinney does not ignore the most pressing issues that face the country in favour of his independence strategy, and he should abandon the notion that public services can only be fixed with independence. They’ve worsened since the SNP has been in power, and while some may argue that it is not entirely its fault, at a minimum there is shared culpability, and the SNP needs to offer solutions, referendum or not, because if it is elected to government again there is no guarantee it will be with a majority. 

On the other hand, while there are no suggestions Swinney has found a legal route to holding an independence referendum without the permission of Westminster, if he is successful in achieving a majority in May it would be hard to argue there is no mandate for a referendum, and denial of that would leave many asking: is this really a voluntary union?  

Speaking earlier this month on the BBC’s The Sunday Show, the newly-appointed Secretary of State for Scotland, Douglas Alexander, repeated what Keir Starmer said during his visit to Glasgow at the beginning of September: that there will not be a referendum under any circumstances. Alexander told Martin Geissler that the prime minister was “speaking for many of us right across Scotland – north, east, west, south – who really don’t see independence as a priority”.  

To my mind, if a vote for the SNP at this election is clearly a vote for Scotland to decide again whether it should remain in the union or become independent, and Swinney is successful in securing a majority of seats, then surely at that point Alexander and the rest of the UK Government must concede that holding a referendum is a top priority for Scotland. 

Geissler asked the Scottish Secretary very directly: “Is this union voluntary, or is Scotland locked into it?” Alexander did a poor job of explaining why it is voluntary and what Scotland’s legal route to a referendum will be in the future if the UK Government is unwilling to grant a referendum, no matter the mandate set by voters.  

Swinney has taken the most sensible route available to ensure a mandate is undeniable, following on from Nicola Sturgeon’s government’s unsuccessful fight for a referendum in the courts, which set the possibility of a ballot back years. And it’s a smart call to step away from the message Sturgeon ran on in 2021, where she opened the party’s doors to unionist voters amidst the uncertainty of the pandemic, and while the second largest pro-independence party, the Scottish Greens, is actively encouraging unionists to vote for the party despite its more than a decade-long stance on independence in the name of tackling climate change. 

Alex Salmond called 2014 a “once-in-a-generation opportunity”. That’s been hijacked in the years since, and I would suggest that, for the period, it has been a valid response to subsequent requests for a referendum. But Swinney made the point in his speech earlier this month that by 2030, there will be a million new Scots eligible to vote who couldn’t 11 years ago. And I agree that, by then, Scotland will have entered a new generation. 

If the SNP can show Scotland has chosen another referendum, and it is denied by Westminster, then if not now, when?