Associate feature: More Cows, More Opportunity: Why Scotland Must Beef Up

Scotland’s rural and coastal communities have a lot to be proud of.

Scotland has a huge opportunity in front of it. New economic modelling from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) shows that with modest individual herd growth, Scotland could help meet rising demand for UK-produced beef — and in doing so, generate an additional £281 million in output and £76 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) for the Scottish economy.

By 2030, the UK is projected to need an extra 278,000 tonnes of beef, on top of what it already produces to reach self-sufficiency, as domestic production is forecast to fall by 8% and demand is set to continue to rise from a growing population. Without intervention, that shortfall will mean greater reliance on imports — at a time when food security, climate resilience, and local economies are already under pressure.

Scotland can play a crucial role in closing this gap. Our modelling shows that producing an extra 22,000 tonnes of beef annually by 2030 is possible with around 79,000 more breeding cows across the country. That’s just a couple more cows per herd each year, or a total increase of six to eight cows over the next three to four years.

This is a realistic, manageable goal and the timing couldn’t be better. Beef prices are strong, processing plants are operating at only 69–73% of their capacity, and the consumer support is already there.

Recent research by Censuswide for QMS found that 90% of Scottish red meat consumers would prefer to buy Scottish beef, lamb, and pork, even if imports were 30% cheaper. Around three-quarters actively choose local red meat when shopping. Their reasons? Supporting farmers (74%), boosting the local economy (72%), superior quality and freshness (over 50%), and traceability (54%).

Despite this, the NFU Scotland’s latest ShelfWatch report shows a 6% rise in imported red meat in supermarkets — a worrying trend that threatens the long-term viability of domestic production. Over 80% of consumers say they’re concerned about growing dependence on imported meat. (The Knowledge Bank - Scottish Provenance Research 2023)

If we don’t act, UK beef imports could increase by 124,000 tonnes by 2030 — weakening our self-sufficiency and increasing emissions, as UK beef is typically more climate-efficient than imported alternatives. That would run counter to our own sustainability goals and commitments under the Paris Agreement.

This is why QMS is urging action now. We want to see Scotland’s beef herd return to mid-2010s levels, with a gradual increase that’s achievable for farmers and valuable for the whole country.

We’re not talking about a drastic overhaul. This is about small steps across many farms — and a shared commitment from all stakeholders involved in the Scottish red meat supply chain. 

Investing in Scotland’s beef sector is about more than economics. It’s about supporting rural communities, protecting natural capital, and safeguarding national food security. With underused infrastructure, strong market prices, and public support, we have everything we need to grow — we just need the confidence and coordination to do it.

Let’s choose resilience over reliance, action over imports, and ensure Scotland takes its rightful place at the heart of UK beef production.

This article is sponsored by Quality Meat Scotland. 

More information on Meating Our Potential and the support we are providing to industry here: qmscotland.co.uk/industry-development/meatingourpotential