Tories on course for loss of 60 seats, analysis suggests

Written by Emilio Casalicchio on 15 April 2019 in News

High-profile figures like Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd and ex-leader Iain Duncan Smith would be at "high risk" to lose their seats

Image credit: PA

The Tories are on course for a crushing 60-seat loss after Theresa May failed to deliver Brexit on time, according to a new analysis.

High-profile figures like Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd and ex-leader Iain Duncan Smith would be at "high risk" to lose their seats and Jeremy Corbyn would become Prime Minister, the study shows.

Experts said the forecast - revealed by a new poll of polls conducted by Electoral Calculus for the Sunday Telegraph - was down to the Government struggle over Brexit.

Professor Sir John Curtice, the president of the British Polling Council, said Leave voters were being swayed to back UKIP or the new Brexit Party launched this week by ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

Britain was meant to leave the EU on 29 March but the exit date was delayed after MPs refused to support the Brexit deal the Prime Minister brought back from Brussels.

May is now locked in talks with the Labour party in a bid to strike a compromise that could win the support of the Commons and is widely expected to include staying in a customs union with the bloc.

The poll of polls of more than 8,500 people surveyed between April 2 and 11 found Labour would win 296 seats if there were a snap general election compared with 259 for the Conservatives.

It would hand Corbyn the power to form a Government propped up by minority opposition parties.

Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Theresa May is discovering why David Cameron really held the referendum.

“It wasn’t to placate his own Eurosceptic MPs, instead it was to stop Conservative voters defecting to pro-Brexit parties. That process seems to have restarted and the Conservatives are beginning to suffer.”

Meanwhile, an Opinium poll put the Tories on 29 per cent - a six-point drop since two weeks ago and the lowest level the party has scored for the pollster since 2014. Labour had 36 per cent - up one point in two weeks.


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