UK offshore energy industry faces Grangemouth-scale redundancies every fortnight without intervention, according to report

Tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs will be at risk by 2030 unless urgent and coordinated action is taken immediately, according to a new report from Robert Gordon University.  

It warns that the UK oil and gas energy workforce could shrink by 400 jobs – the same number lost in the closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery – every two weeks for the next five years.  

And with nearly one in 30 of Scotland’s working population employed or supporting the offshore energy industry, compared to one in 220 UK-wide, the risk in Scotland is substantial.  

The report says if Scotland does not capture the full range of offshore energy opportunities as oil and gas continues to decline at an accelerated pace, the Scottish workforce – which was around 75,000 in 2024 – could fall to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s. 

The report urges the UK and Scottish governments to take urgent action to prevent the forecasts from becoming reality. 

It says there is a widening gap between policy intent and real-world outcomes, as recent redundancies in the last few months have been announced by several operators and supply chain companies.  

Robert Gordon University believes between 125,000 and 163,000 oil, gas and renewable workers will be needed in the UK by the beginning of the next decade.  

There are currently 154,000 people working across those sectors. However, the UK oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s, according to the report.  

In a more severe scenario, it is suggested that workforce demands could swell to 210,000 across the UK.  

Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, said the UK’s “lack of joined up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing”. 

He describes the next five years as a “workforce Goldilocks zone” in which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested. However, he urged that this can only be done with rapid investment. 

Reacting to the publication of the report, de Leeuw said: “With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders.  

“The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20 per cent to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.”