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by Andrew Learmonth
05 May 2021
SNP majority 'too close to call', according to final poll of the campaign

Nicola Sturgeon visited J Charles fish merchants in Aberdeen on the final day of campaigning

SNP majority 'too close to call', according to final poll of the campaign


The SNP could be set for an overall majority, according to the latest poll, but the result is “too close to call.”

In worrying news for Anas Sarwar, the Ipsos MORI survey conducted for STV also found that a fifth of Labour voters could still change their mind before tomorrow’s vote. 

With just hours to go until polling stations open, Scotland's political leaders were crossing the country, making one last push.

Nicola Sturgeon visited a fish merchant in Aberdeen before heading to the ultra marginal Dumbarton constituency. Labour's Anas Sarwar held a drive in rally in Glasgow with Gordon Brown.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson were in Stirling, while Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater were at an event in Edinburgh.

Half of all voters told the pollster they’d vote for the SNP on the constituency, up four points on their last poll at the start of April. Labour are also up four to 22 per cent, the Conservatives are on 20 per cent, the Liberal Democrats six percent. 

On the list, the SNP are sitting at 39 per cent, while the Tories are on 23 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 4 per cent, and Alba on two per cent. 

According to the Ballot Box Scotland website, that would give the SNP 69 MSPs, the Tories would win 27, Labour 19, the Greens 11 and the Lib Dems three. Alex Salmond’s Alba would fail to win any. 

Ispos MORI said the findings “confirm that the SNP is going into Thursday’s election in a very strong position.”

However, the pollster added: “It is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. 

“This is both because specific local circumstances will play a role and because all polls are subject to a margin of error, which could easily be the difference between the SNP gaining an outright majority and falling short of this.”

According to the survey, among likely voters, 12 per cent of likely voters say they may still change their mind before they cast their constituency vote. 

This rises to 21 per cent of Labour supporters who may change their mind, while SNP and Conservative supporters are more likely to say that they have definitely decided to vote for their party (91 per cent and 90 per cent).

Similarly, 14 per cent say they may still change their mind before they cast their regional list vote. Fifteen per cent of Labour supporters, 11 per cent of Conservative supporters and 9 per cent of SNP supporters say they may change their mind on the list vote.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Whether there will be a SNP majority or not hangs in the balance.

“The election result may come down to how the parties perform in a small number of key marginal seats, as well as in the regional vote, which is likely to prove particularly important in determining which party is in second place.

“With a relatively high percentage of voters still saying they’ve not definitely decided, all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow.”

An earlier Savanta ComRes poll for the Scotsman today suggested the SNP going backwards, with their worst result since 2017, winning just 42 per cent of the constituency vote and 34 per cent of the regional list. That would give them just 59 MSPs.

Meanwhile, a YouGov poll for The Times said the SNP would win 68 seats. 

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