Reform to become Scotland's second-largest party, poll suggests

Reform UK will leapfrog Scottish Labour and the Tories to become the main opposition at the 2026 Holyrood election, new polling suggests.

After the party's general election triumph, in which it became not only the party of government but the party with the most Scottish MPs, it was thought that Labour was in contention to form the next Scottish Government.

Sarwar has said the country-wide contest is a "straight choice" between Labour and the SNP.

But the latest figures suggest it is not on course to form the administration, nor become the largest opposition party.

Compiled by pollsters Survation, the results put Scottish Labour and Reform neck-and-neck for the constituency contest.

And they suggest Nigel Farage's party will pick up more support on the regional list, outstripping Labour by just two percentage points.

The SNP will win the largest share of the vote overall, the research suggests, with the Scottish Conservatives suffering major losses.

According to projections from Professor Sir John Curtice, the figures would return the SNP on 58 seats, Labour on 18 and the Conservatives on 13. 

Reform would move into second place as the main opposition party on 21 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens on 10 and 8 seats respectively.

The research was commissioned by lobby firm True North Advisors and is released with one year until the polls open. More than 1,000 people were questioned between May 2-5.

Curtice commented: "After its success in last week's English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives' and Labour's prospects at Holyrood too.

"More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year's Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.

"As a result, Reform's poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20 per cent for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.

"The fracturing of the unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party's share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood's first past the post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.

"Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland's politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK."

Fergus Mutch of True North Advisors said: "Anas Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break – with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland – and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him.

"The Conservatives, meanwhile, are being monstered by Reform and are at risk of tumbling from second to fourth place in Scottish politics."

The results in full:

Constituency

Alba                1%

Con                 11%

Lab                  19%

LibDem          11%

SNP                 33%

Reform           19%

Greens            5%

Regional List

Con                 12%

Green              9%

Lab                  18%

Alba                 3%

LibDem           10%

Reform            20%

SNP                 29%

Seat projections

Con                 13

Lab                  18

LibDem           10

SNP                 58

Green              8

Reform            21

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes                  49%

No                   51%