What is the Scottish Tory election strategy?

Whisper it – for the first time in a long time, the Scottish Conservative Party seems entirely comfortable in its own skin, at least in comparison to its rivals in the parliamentary chamber.

In fact there were times during the referendum when, alongside the SNP, the Scottish Tories were one of the few forces in Scottish politics which seemed to know exactly what it wanted from the vote.

Labour, in contrast, seemed confused at points. Some would argue it still does, with the party’s new leader, Jim Murphy, even recently going so far as to claim he is ‘not a unionist’. 

Meanwhile the Lib Dems are still hurting from the coalition and a perceived sense that the party betrayed its own supporters. 

Even the SNP, buoyed by a surge in membership, is still trying to find its new place in the political landscape following the No vote. 

The party has a new leader, who is facing the task of assimilating thousands of new members – each with different ideas over the party’s identity – while heading straight into a general election. 

The SNP may be flying high in the polls but it is still going through a period of change.

The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, seems to have escaped much of the anger levelled by Yes supporters at Scottish Labour. 

"During the referendum I heard a lot of people suggest that you could pay Monaco taxes and have Scandinavian public services. You can’t"

And while few commentators are predicting big gains for the Scottish Tories in May, there is a sense that the referendum reminded the party of what it is all about. Better Together may have troubled Labour, but it seems to have rejuvenated the Tories.

Murdo Fraser describes the party as “in good heart” after the No vote.

“It is generally understood by commentators that we had a good referendum campaign. It was an issue which galvanised the grassroots of the party and we found a load of new people coming forward who wanted to get involved in the No campaign who were Conservatives and so who as a consequence then wanted to stay involved. 

“It was a cause which Conservatives believed passionately in and, unlike some of the other parties, we had almost complete unity, we were all on the same side of the debate. We were all also on the winning side – which is a relatively unusual occurrence for the Scottish Conservatives, and an especially pleasant one, so that has helped people’s confidence. Then lastly, Ruth Davidson in particular had a very good referendum campaign and she established herself as a leading figure in Scottish politics – particularly through her debating skills.”

The upcoming party conference, then, should be a strangely cheerful affair for a party that traditionally struggles in Scotland. Low expectations can be liberating, after all.

David Mundell, currently the only Conservative MP in Scotland, sees it as a chance to build energy going into the General Election campaign.

“The conference will very much be our pitch to the people of Scotland ahead of the General Election, why it is important to vote Conservative in Scotland if you don’t want economic and constitutional chaos. It is a chance for us to set out some distinct policies, which Ruth and her team have been developing as we go into the General Election. 

“We will be saying that this is the most important, unpredictable General Election in living memory and people’s votes really will count, so they need to focus on what it is they want from the election.” 

In terms of strategy, a recent confrontation between Ed Miliband and David Cameron at PMQs told a story, with Miliband attacking the PM on the so-called ‘cost of living crisis’.

Cameron replied: “The news out today shows a record number of people in work and a record number of women in work. We are seeing wages growing ahead of inflation, and we are also seeing disposable income now higher than in any year under the previous Labour Government.” 

He added: “The fact of the matter is that he [Miliband] told us there would be no growth, and we have had growth; he told us there would be no jobs, and we have had jobs; he told us there would be a cost of living crisis, and we have got inflation at 0.5 per cent. He is wrong about everything.”

'We will be saying that this is the most important, unpredictable General Election in living memory and people’s votes really will count'

The Tory approach is pretty clear – hammer in the message that it is the only party which can be trusted with the economy.

And though there have been repeated false dawns, and recurring concerns over whether any improvements are being felt by working people, the headline figures are positive. 

Fraser says: “We have the fastest growing economy in Europe, and, according to projections, the fastest growing economy in the western world. We have unemployment falling rapidly and employment growing rapidly. We now have inflation down and wages rising faster than prices. 

“So that is a very good story to tell and none of it happened by accident, it happened because of very tough political decisions taken by the UK Government, at a time when our political opponents were saying ‘this won’t work’ and ‘this isn’t the right way to go’.”

The plan then, is to paint the Conservatives as the party of stability while characterising Labour as a force of unrestrained spending, and the SNP as a danger to the UK.

As Mundell puts it: “We are offering a message of competence against chaos. That is quite a stark alternative in Scotland because any other choice is going to lead to either economic or constitutional chaos and I don’t think people want to return to either.”

Beyond that, Fraser argues that David Cameron is a more effective campaign weapon in Scotland than common sense would suggest – though this may be more to do with the UK Labour leader’s atrocious polling than any affection for the Prime Minister.

He says: “The other key message is simply about who is in office at Number Ten Downing Street. On the 8th of May it will be one of two people in Downing Street – either it will be David Cameron or it will be Ed Miliband and we think David Cameron is a very strong asset for the Conservatives, and I think given the choice between him and Miliband, many, many neutrals would opt for Cameron. 

'We are offering a message of competence against chaos'

“Indeed, and this is pretty unusual in a historical context, the evidence from Scottish polling is that even though David Cameron has a negative poll rating in Scotland, which is not unusual for a Conservative Prime Minister, he rates better than Ed Miliband does. So even voters in Scotland seem to prefer the prospect of a David Cameron Prime Ministership to that of an Ed Miliband one.”

Meanwhile, the Smith Agreement and the continuing arguments over the ‘Vow’ are still dominating the political agenda. Yet – unlike Scottish Labour, which recently launched a new devolution offering, dubbed ‘the Vow Plus’ – the Scottish Tories seem pretty happy with the outcome of the talks. 

Certainly the agreement does not look too different to the devolution proposals Ruth Davidson unfurled last year.

And it may be the prospect of tax being devolved to Holyrood which is cheering Conservatives north of the border.

Mundell says: “I think the argument is stronger than ever, the Scottish Parliament has to take responsibility for its own decision making, it has to choose its own priorities, and we have to break out of the narrative that everything that goes wrong is someone else’s fault. There are tough choices to make and you have to be prepared to look the people of Scotland in the eye and justify the choices you have made and then they decide at the ballot box if they were the right ones. 

“I think Ruth’s proposals were very important in terms of bringing forward a bold package from the Smith Commission and now we need to get ahead in doing that.”

In this sense, there may be a feeling within the party that the need to balance the books, rather than just spending the block grant, could turn Scotland into a nation of Conservatives. 

Mundell says: “I think that it will force a proper debate about tax and spending. During the referendum I heard a lot of people suggest that you could pay Monaco taxes and have Scandinavian public services. You can’t. What you have to do is create priorities and determine how best to achieve further growth, and the Conservatives would be arguing from a perspective of a low tax economy. What we will have is something distinctive to offer, because all the other parties are suggesting higher spending, which can only be paid for by tax or borrowing.”