JP Morgan predicts Scotland will be independent by 2019

Written by Liam Kirkaldy on 29 June 2016 in News

US investment bank produces paper analysing the consequences of the vote to leave the EU

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JP Morgan says it expects Scotland to become an independent country with a new currency by 2019.

The US investment bank has produced paper analysing the consequences of the vote to leave the EU.

The paper, produced by economist Malcolm Barr, predicts Scotland will vote for independence before the UK completes the process required to exit the EU.


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It warns there are “myriad uncertainties in how the UK’s relationship with the EU will evolve”, but argues the paper provides a “case for how we think things will play out from here.”

But in a section on Scotland it says: "Intersecting the UK’s EU exit process is likely to be pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence, which we expect will ultimately produce a vote shortly before the UK leaves the EU in 2019.

“Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point.”

Nicola Sturgeon has already instructed the Scottish Government to prepare legislation for a second independence referendum, with the First Minister warning the vote for Brexit makes the vote “highly likely”.

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