Economic growth in Scotland expected to 'lag behind UK', says Fraser of Allander

Written by Tom Freeman on 29 June 2017 in News

Scotland's economy 'precarious', warns Strathclyde University's economic think tank.

Money - stock

Scotland's economy is "stuck in a cycle of weak growth", according to economic think tank the Fraser of Allander Institute.

Official figures due next month may indicate Scotland has tipped into recession, the group said.

Despite positive indicators from business activity and the job market, think tank expressed "increasing concern" about the a slowdown across industry.


"Scotland's economy seems to be stuck in a cycle of weak growth, declining confidence and poor investment and net export figures," the report said.

The performance gap between Scotland's economy and the UK economy as a whole is likely to widen, Fraser of Allander director Graeme Roy said, but he predicted some sectors such as food and drink would continue to grow..

"On balance, our forecast is that growth will return in 2017, with tentative signs of a more positive outlook for Scotland's oil and gas sector and improving order books across Scottish businesses.

"In the current climate sentiment can change quickly. Should the upcoming Brexit negotiations go badly, or the UK economy slows down more quickly than anticipated, then Scotland's economic prospects could take a sharp turn for the worse."

Scotland's Economy Secretary Keith Brown ​said the unemployment rate was much lower than the Fraser of Allander Institute had previously predicted.

"While challenges remain, the report also confirms emerging signs of confidence returning to the oil and gas sector, building on recent reports from Bank of Scotland and Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce," he said.

"While these signs are encouraging, we must be clear that the biggest threat to Scotland's economy continues to be Brexit - as this report makes clear."

Scottish Conservative economy spokesman Dean Lockhart said: '"As this report states, whether or not Scotland officially enters recession hangs in the balance. And that's while the rest of the UK powers ahead, so the SNP can't possibly blame Brexit.

"This is on the Scottish Government's shoulders, and it has to explain what it is going to do to kick-start the economy it is in charge of."



Related Articles

UK Government Brexit white paper ‘falls short’, Scottish Government says
12 July 2018

The paper sets out the UK Government’s proposals for a post-Brexit relationship with the EU, but the Scottish Government suggested it offered “little reassurance”

Q&A: Finance Secretary Derek Mackay on future growth in the digital economy
5 July 2018

Digital has been placed at the centre of future economic growth and the Scottish Government has committed to supporting it

Banks have failed to engage with communities over branch closures, MSPs warn
3 July 2018

The Economy, Jobs and Fair Work Committee found that branch closures were hitting the most vulnerable, with MSPs warning that alternative options to face-to-face banking have not been adequate

FinTech Scotland announces board members
28 June 2018

FinTech Scotland has been set up to promote Scotland as a centre for financial technology

Related Sponsored Articles

Share this page