Special report
A week in politics 17 May 2010 A new deal maybe, but Labour in Scotland now has a clear line of sight to attack Michael Portillo, whose loss of Enfield South in the 1997 General Election was voted by Channel 4 viewers their third favourite moment of the 20th century – ahead of the assassination of President Ceausescu – reckons that his name has become “synonymous with eating a bucketload of shit in public.” In the early hours of Friday May 7 – and with great alacrity – the voters of England emptied several bucketsful over their elected representatives. On whom they were tipped, though, did not always follow a trend. Yes, Vera Baird in Redcar, Jacqui Smith in Redditch, Tony McNulty in Harrow East, Phil Hope in Corby, Ann Keen in Brentford and Isleworth and Shahid Malik in Dewsbury; they and their expenses claims all disappeared under a torrent of ordure. But why not Hazel Blears in Salford and Eccles? Or Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood? As if taking part in the public vote for I’m A Celebrity – Get Me Out Of Here!, their escape seemed designed to keep at least a couple of pantomime villains in the jungle. Balls was the Tories’ number one “decapitation” target. Indeed, Portillo regarded him as his “worthy successor” whose loss would lead to national jubilation “unmatched since the relief of Mafeking”. The onetime Tory leader hopeful had stood ready to light election night’s first bonfire and launch its first rocket. But as the sun rose on Friday, Balls was able to first appear gracious, in his victory speech, and then revert to type under questioning from Paxo; gloating that the media had been denied “their Portillo moment”. Scotland, too, reverted to type. In 2005, Labour had 41 seats (including Speaker Michael Martin), the Liberal Democrats had 11, the SNP six and the Tories just one. Two changed in subsequent by-elections; Dunfermline West went to the Lib Dems and the SNP took Glasgow East. But a portent of things to come arrived just after 1am in the shape of Tom Greatrex, a former adviser to Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy, who increased Labour’s majority in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by more than 5,000. While the results in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were dramatic, north of the border they were mundane. ‘Labour hold’ flashed monotonously on screen. There seemed little point in staying with BBC Scotland; the real story was unfolding with David Dimbleby on BBC2. Vague interest in Scotland may have been prompted by new or new-ish faces replacing Labour’s old hands, such as John Reid, Adam Ingram and Des Browne. But the notion of SNP target seats began to look risible. Margaret Curran took back Glasgow East from John Mason. Labour even forced an upset, unseating the Lib Dem’s Willie Rennie in Dunfermline and West Fife. Michael Russell opined that the voters were “going home” to Labour in order to keep out a Tory government. Alex Salmond chastised them for their “bad habit”. But if the SNP was being diminished in its significance to UK politics, the Tories in Scotland were once again being crushed under the weight of Labour votes. In the once Tory safe seat of East Renfrewshire – nominally a target seat for them this time – Jim Murphy increased his majority to more than 10,000 in a 3.2 per cent swing to Labour. And on a day of unfulfilled electoral ambition for the Lib Dems, they failed to dislodge Labour in Glasgow North and in Edinburgh North and Leith. The calendar had been rewound to 2005. Alex Salmond may have got the “balanced” Westminster Parliament he wished for, but not the MPs with which to exert influence. In the fevered week that followed, the prospect of a place at the negotiating table in London evaporated along with Gordon Brown’s hold on power. In an act of fratricide, Scotland’s Labour MPs made it clear they would have nothing to do with the Nationalists’ hopes for a progressive coalition. And as the sun shone on David Cameron and Nick Clegg in the garden of Number 10 last week, Britain’s regional parties were nowhere to be seen. The coalition deal was negotiated in the Cabinet Office in Whitehall. On May 7, Cameron and George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, triggered a plan that had been weeks in the making. They knew that the key issue for the Lib Dems would be electoral reform. The line in the sand would be to offer, as a final inducement, a referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV) system; everything else, within reason, was negotiable. Although the Tories did not play this card immediately, it provided them with a clarity that took the Lib Dem negotiators by surprise and meant that parallel discussions over a range of issues with Labour, whose negotiators behaved like hormonal teenagers, were destined to founder. When Gordon Brown said he would resign to facilitate a Labour-Lib Dem pact, the Tories played their ace. The main hurdle for Clegg, instinctively more at ease with Cameron than Brown, was to convince the left-wing of his party. Similarly, Cameron had to enter his own Dragons’ Den. But both were emboldened by the prospect of power and the possibility of re-shaping British politics. When Brown was told last Tuesday that his team’s talks with the Lib Dems were going nowhere, he forced everyone’s hand. That evening, he was flying home to North Queensferry with his family. The Lib Dems emerged from the negotiations as full members of a coalition, rather than players in a “confidence and supply” arrangement which they had anticipated when they entered. Deputy prime minister, four other cabinet posts and 20 government posts in total are now in their command. And they secured four key concessions from the Tories. There will be a referendum to bring in AV; coalition members will be subject to a three-line whip to force legislation for a referendum through but will be free to campaign for reforms before it is passed. There will be five-year fixed term parliaments, an entirely or mainly elected second chamber and a commission to review party funding. The tax burden on low earners will be reduced; the personal tax allowance will be substantially increased from April next year with a long-term goal of a £10,000 personal tax allowance. Tory plans to reduce inheritance tax that would have benefited the richest people most have been scrapped. And a new pupil premium is to be introduced, steering more funding to schools for every child they take from poor homes to help close the class gap in school results. For their part, the Tories have support to cut public spending by £6bn this year and to reverse planned rises in national insurance contributions. There will be a cap on immigration and Lib Dem proposals for an amnesty for illegal immigrants have been dumped. There is a commitment to maintain Britain’s nuclear deterrent. There will be no proposals to join the euro and any further transfer of powers to Europe would be put to a referendum. The Tories retain their proposal for a £150 marriage tax break; the Lib Dems will abstain, rather than oppose the plan. The prize for Clegg is fundamental electoral and constitutional reform; a chance to be in and remain at the centre of power. For Cameron, it is a renewed Tory party and a shot at winning a clear majority and a second term in office on May 7 2015. Labour’s relative success in Scotland may not endure if Cameron and Clegg’s new politics take hold. The Lib Dems – accused by Labour of “making a pact with the devil” – argue that the coalition could be good for Scotland. Alastair Carmichael, the Lib Dems’ election campaign manager, said that relations between Westminster and Holyrood would be “transformed”. The SNP and Labour had been incapable of dealing with each other, he said. Scottish issues on which Labour had prevaricated will now be tackled. The task of maintaining the coalition’s relevance in Scotland goes to Danny Alexander, the new Secretary of State. Alexander was Clegg’s chief of staff, the author of the party’s manifesto (which advocated scrapping his new post) and a key negotiator of last week’s deal with the Tories. He arrived in office with a mandate to follow through on the recommendations of last year’s Calman Commission, including increased fiscal responsibility for the Scottish Parliament. Last Wednesday, Alexander met Scotland’s sole Tory MP, David Mundell, to discuss a shared agenda. At the same time, Salmond spoke to Cameron by phone, offering his congratulations. Their conversation was “constructive and amicable,” said the First Minister. In the run-up to the election, Cameron spoke about making devolution “work better”. The Tory leader said: “We need mutual respect and a politics which is about discussion and delivery rather than about confrontation and grievance.” In a follow-up letter to the Prime Minister last week, the First Minister echoed Cameron’s words: “The Scottish Government looks forward to working constructively with the incoming UK Government and the other devolved administrations. We would expect our working relationship to be based on widely accepted principles of mutual respect and parity of esteem.” The two were scheduled to meet at St Andrew’s House last Friday. Discussions on existing funding arrangements, implementation of Calman, plans for continued economic stimulus and Scotland’s role in European Union discussions have been tabled by Salmond. Scotland’s electoral map may look unchanged, but the ground has shifted. Contrarily, the prospects of change in Scotland are now much stronger with Cameron as Prime Minister. But, equally, Labour in Scotland now has a clearer line of sight to attack. It is no longer encumbered by the baggage of Blair and Brown’s rule. The SNP’s honeymoon with the Scottish electorate is long over and a majority of Scots appear genetically indisposed to the Tories; budget cuts could make this a toxic mix for the Scottish Government. Election night in Scotland next May promises to be a more compelling experience. Related articles: Working together 25 June 2010 Delivering on 2020 25 June 2010 Vocational education 11 June 2010 A man of substance 17 May 2010 A new beginning 17 May 2010 See all articles in this category Submit a comment |
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