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Special report The elephant in the room 11 February 2010 David Torrance On what a Tory win at the general election could mean for the Scottish Conservatives The former Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau, memorably remarked to an American audience that “living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant: no matter how friendly and even-tempered the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt”. Trudeau’s well-crafted simile could, of course, be applied to many similar geopolitical situations. For example, it neatly describes the relationship between England and Scotland within the United Kingdom. Equally, it also reflects the internal dynamic between the UK Conservative Party and its semi-autonomous Scottish counterpart. So if the Tory elephant should twitch into life and win the forthcoming general election, will its northern bedfellow be grunted at or treated with care? There are, I think, two possible scenarios, of which more in a moment. First, the election. At worst David Cameron is looking at being leader of the largest party in a hung Parliament, and at best a prime minister equipped with a modest, but workable, majority. In Scotland the scope is narrower. The Scottish Tories will either emerge from the campaign with a couple of MPs or, having benefitted from a UK-wide swing, contribute half a dozen MPs to Cameron’s parliamentary majority. Given recent opinion polls, in Scotland at least, I think the former scenario is still most likely: David Mundell will hold his Dumfriesshire constituency with John Lamont, currently an MSP, joining him on the green benches having captured Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk from the Liberal Democrats. Mundell – despite journalistic nonsense to the contrary – will become Secretary of State for Scotland. But what next? With elections to the Scottish Parliament due exactly a year after the likely date of the general election, all eyes will naturally be on how a new Tory government manages the perennial political problem that is governing Scotland with a weak mandate. One thing is certain: it ain’t going to be easy. The scenario repeatedly pushed by Scottish Conservative Central Office is relatively rosy. By pursuing the “respect agenda” – under which Cameron will visit Scotland regularly and engage with Holyrood – and delaying serious spending cuts for at least a year, Scots voters will realise that the wicked Tories aren’t so bad after all and elect more Conservative MSPs come May 2011. An alternative scenario runs along the following lines. The Conservatives win just two Scottish constituencies, reviving cries of “no mandate” and attracting virulent attacks from the SNP and Labour. Cameron, meanwhile, starts cutting the state down to size and the Scottish block grant with it. Scots voters remember just how wicked the Tories were in the 1980s and elect fewer Conservative MSPs to punish them in 2011. The most likely outcome, as ever, probably sits somewhere between the two. Any “no mandate” charge should, or at least could, be weakened by the presence of Holyrood, while the impact of spending cuts may not immediately become apparent. Cameron as prime minister would also have some valuable assets. First, his general character and instincts will respond well to the Scottish dimension, while he’ll be well served by David Mundell, his unfairly lamented Scottish Secretary. A sharp reader of the political landscape, Mundell’s experience as an MSP (which everyone seems to overlook) will also make him an ideal linkman between the worlds of Westminster and Holyrood. In terms of legislation, however, a Cameron government will be limited not only by devolution, but by Dave’s own promise not to introduce any Bills that do not enjoy wide support in Scotland. This potentially cedes an astonishing amount of political power, although not in one important arena – that of the constitution. Scottish politics is obsessed by constitutional navel-gazing to an extent not matched by the electorate. That said, the Calman Commission’s proposals – a degree of fiscal autonomy accompanied by devolution of more reserved powers – are the one thing that enjoy majority support in Scotland. An incoming Tory government, therefore, has almost no excuse not to implement them quickly and positively. Not to do so would be depicted as “anti- Scottish” with the Conservatives reverting to Unionist type. So far Cameron has merely promised (reluctantly) to produce proposals within a year of the election. This, frankly, will not be enough. I suspect that a timetable will become clearer closer to the general election; campaigning with a “Calman in due course” message simply will not wash. A recent IPPR survey suggested that a majority of Conservative MPs support greater fiscal autonomy (if only to bury the Barnett formula), and George Osborne is certainly sympathetic, so the political will is there. The Treasury will naturally resent an erosion of its fiscal empire, but if Osborne is to prove himself as Chancellor then overcoming Whitehall hostility will provide useful proof of his virility. So that – packaged as nationalistically as possible – combined with warm words from Dave may just combine to take the heat out of any “no mandate” revival. Public spending cuts will certainly be in the air, but at such an early stage the electorate may still be inclined to give a new government the benefit of the doubt while continuing to blame it all on “Labour’s recession”. What of the redoubtable Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader and Cameron’s favourite Scottish aunty? Again, the general election aftermath could go either way. If she has a good campaign in Scotland (which seems likely given her spirited performance at the 2007 Holyrood elections) and finds herself with an increased share of the vote (for the first time since 1997), then her leadership will be secure. Alternatively, if the general election campaign goes badly – if, for example, her line on Calman is as vague and unconvincing as it’s been for the last few months – and her party’s share of the vote once again declines, then she could be on shakier ground. Although the mood music in the Tory group has grown more critical of late, Goldie remains – on balance – a positive asset. Her position is also strengthened by the lack of an obvious, or more to the point willing, successor. A trio of Young Turks – Gavin Brown, Derek Brownlee and the current deputy leader Murdo Fraser – would seem the most obvious although all lack Goldie’s ebullience and public profile. Jackson Carlaw, meanwhile, certainly doesn’t lack presence, and may fancy his chances if the election result gives him an opportunity to strike. Beyond this hypothesizing there remains the wider question of what the Scottish Conservative Party does next. What exactly is it for, even assuming a Tory victory at the UK level? This is a much harder question to answer. Pre-1997 (when, let’s not forget, more people voted Tory in Scotland than now) the party could at least differentiate itself from political competition by pointing to its unequivocal Unionism. But in an era of pseudo-federal devolution they no longer have that option. Instead, the (once) natural party of government is left flailing around for a role, sustained by occasional tactical triumphs and successful PR stunts under the protective umbrella of the Scottish Parliament. This, however, is no substitute for direction and a clear identity. There is, I’m sorry to say, an appalling inclination towards playing it safe on the second floor of Holyrood’s MSP block. The Scottish Government’s recent legislative attack on the Right to Buy, a Thatcherite legacy of which Scottish Tories are justly proud, is a case in point. Although a robust press release was issued by David McLetchie (who’s nominally in charge of the general election campaign), the issue was not even raised at First Minister’s Questions. There was a fear, I was told at the time, that defending the policy would appear too Conservative, a bit too right wing. Some MSPs even lobbied to fall in behind the SNP and all but neuter the party’s own long-standing policy. Now I’m all for political pragmatism, but I remember thinking at the time that this was the behaviour of a party which had lost its nerve. The party, to be fair, has sharpened up its act since the arrival of Michael Crow, who promotes the Tory cause with all the zeal of a recent convert. Nevertheless, there is precious little attention to policy or, dare I say it, philosophy, beyond trying to grab shortterm media hits. And more to the point, the slicker PR machine with its dizzying array of initiatives and events, has had no discernable impact on the opinion polls. Conservative-commissioned surveys – as spoon-fed to a compliant media – tell us many things. They indicate that around two thirds of Scots believe David Cameron will become prime minister in May; they suggest that most people think the SNP are irrelevant in the context of a British general election. But what they don’t tell us is the most important statistic of all – how many Scots are planning to vote Tory. Let us conclude by returning to Trudeau’s elephant simile. No matter how friendly and even-tempered David Cameron’s Conservatives may be, before during and particularly after the general election, every twitch and grunt in Scotland will need to be carefully calculated. The elephant’s Scottish friend, meanwhile, can merely hope that it isn’t crushed during a nocturnal shift. Holyrood Magazine - issue 217 | Next article Related articles: Working together 25 June 2010 Delivering on 2020 25 June 2010 Vocational education 11 June 2010 A week in politics 17 May 2010 A man of substance 17 May 2010 See all articles in this category Submit a comment |
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