This year's American presidential election is certainly “an historic election” agreed all the speakers at Setting the President at the Festival of Politics at the Scottish Parliament yesterday.

The programme included Philip Davies, Professor of American Studies, De Montfort University Leicester, Miki Bowman, Chair of Republican Abroad UK and Bill Barnard, Chair of Democrats Abroad UK discussing their views on the candidates and the election so far, what was to come in the 75 days until election day and some of the key election issues both for Americans and for the rest of the world.

Comparing the primaries, both Barnard and Bowman agreed that the primaries had been divisive for both parties, with Bowman insisting that “Republicans were already healing the divisions” while Democrats were still suffering from the divisions between Clinton and Obama camps. Obama, she said, “should never have allowed the role-call” at the Democratic Convention next week, saying that it was “a sign of weakness” which was reflective of Obama’s lack of confidence in his ability to heal the divisions of the primaries. Barnard conceded that there were fervent Clinton supporters who had not reconciled themselves to Obama, but suggested that the actual policy differences between the two democratic contenders was so small that “you couldn’t get a cigarette paper between them” and said that the primaries had therefore turned on personality rather than policy, and that the party “will be united in the end”.

Bowman and Barnard also agreed that national polls at this point were almost meaningless, saying that the significant polls were at state levels, particularly in key battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia. Barnard emphasized the Democrats 50 state strategy and the impact of demographic shifts in places like Virginia to enable Democrats to be competitive in traditionally red states. Bowman conceded that the Republicans “did not anticipate picking up seats in the Senate and the House” and were instead looking to “hold onto what we’ve got”.

Audience questions focused largely on America’s perception of new international geo-political realities, to which both Bowman and Barnard conceded that for Americans all politics is local and played down the importance of changing international geopolitical realities on the American election.  Barnard said that “American strategic priorities are fundamentally not going to change no matter who wins” however he said that the approach to those strategic priorities depended on the personality of the President. Bowman admitted that “most people in America will heave a sigh of relief that the Bush administration is over” and said that there would be a change of approach to international politics with either McCain or Obama in the White House.

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