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Holyrood opinion poll

With the publication of the interim Calman Report, do you think –
 
Poll of polls puts SNP ahead Print E-mail
Thursday, 26 April 2007

A poll compiled from the average results of five different polling organisations has indicated that the SNP will come out of May’s election as the largest party with 47 seats.

However, the poll also projected that Labour will claim 43 seats, putting them only four seats behind and, with both parties with potentially enough MSPs to form a majority coalition, leaving the Liberal Democrats, with a predicted 22 seats, as possible kingmakers.

Weber Shandwick’s election predictor also foresees a number of Labour casualties, with Health Minister Andy Kerr, Education Minister Hugh Henry, Deputy Enterprise Minister Allan Wilson and Deputy Presiding Officer Trish Godman all looking set to lose their seats.

Weber Shandwick's director of public affairs, Moray Macdonald, said: “All the opinion polls seem to be confirming that Labour is in for a terrible time on election night. However, there is a real chance that government could be stolen from under its nose if the Lib Dems choose to side with Labour.”

For the constituency vote the poll puts Labour on 31 per cent, SNP on 35 per cent, Conservatives on 13 per cent, and Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent. For the regional vote Labour are on 28 per cent, SNP on 33 per cent, Conservative on 12 per cent, Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent and the Green Party on 5 per cent.

While the SNP will undoubtedly be pleased to still be leading, Macdonald sees the results as demonstrating a potential challenge for the party.

"This poll demonstrates that it is crucial for the SNP to make real progress in key Labour constituencies if they are to stand a chance of being the largest party in the Parliament. If the SNP don’t topple Andy Kerr in East Kilbride and Hugh Henry in Paisley South then it is unlikely that we will see Alex Salmond as First Minister.”
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 26 April 2007 )
 
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