Politicians believe that opinion polls are the fluff in the pockets of political anoraks and lazy journalists. That is, of course, when they are behind in them. In the privacy of their inner sanctum, this bravado quickly disappears as they salivate over every minute movement of the swingometer. Remarkably, with all the greatest brains at their disposal, politicians are still swayed by the vagaries of a tick in a box, an answer in a questionnaire or a comment in a newspaper. That’s why Cathy Jamieson didn’t put herself forward for leadership of the labour Party in the Scottish Parliament – simply because her name hadn’t been mentioned in the media as a possible contender. Similarly, Gordon Brown, who has been Prime Minister for less than a few months, albeit one in-waiting for more than ten years, isn’t sure whether the public really wants him or has just accepted him as part of a job lot. He is a man of great intellect, principle and political know-how. Why is it then that after being ushered in as Tony Blair’s replacement he still feels the need to satisfy his own vanity by, and be clear on this, taking himself, not his party, to the polls? Any election that is called this week will be a naked attempt to test his personal popularity as Prime Minister, at the risk of his own party’s majority in a Westminster Government. Less than two and a half years into a five-year parliamentary term, why would the prudent Brown take such a leap of faith, never mind be accused of acting unconstitutionally? Why, when he has promised a new style of government with more substance than spin, has he engaged in a recent and cynical programme of electioneering? Well, what we also know about Mr Brown is that he is insecure. He stood behind Blair, wringing his hands and waiting for the more charismatic half of the Granita duo to honour his side of the power-sharing deal and give him a chance at the helm. He waited and he waited, until it became an almost unseemly and emasculating delay and, towards the end of the Blair reign, there was a feeling that big-man Brown was becoming petulant, even sulky. Unattractive attributes in a man. So, after an achingly long goodbye tour, Tony exited stage left and Brown walked into no.10. There was an immediate Brown bounce then came the floods and the pestilence and he coped admirably and the people of England felt assured and he bounced higher. Brown got a bit cocky and turned up on the doorstep of his new home with the woman who had once been the scourge of the left. He did it unashamedly, to placate any concerns that Middle England may still have. He did it to annoy the Tories. But what he forgot was Thatcher’s legacy in Scotland, a country that had just thrown out his party from government. Then, to compound it all, Wendy Alexander flew down to Bournemouth and apologised to the party faithful for losing the elections in Scotland. As he hums and haws over the election question and pores over those polls for clues, Brown would do well to cast his thoughts homeward and remember what has happened here in the last few months. Labour was trounced. The SNP may have just beaten them by only one seat but that victory was historic and has changed things for Labour, forever. If Brown thinks the SNP swing in Scotland will have no effect on a general election result, he would be wise to remember the so-called Brown bounce has been eclipsed by the SNP’s Holyrood honeymoon and it is from that surprising quarter that the PM could experience a separation, if not a divorce, from Scottish voters.

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