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New poll gives SNP strong lead in UK election |
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Monday, 14 September 2009 11:15 |
A new poll gives the SNP a considerable lead over Labour in both Holyrood and Westminster elections.
The survey of voting intentions by Ipsos MORI puts the SNP 13 points ahead of Labour for the Holyrood poll and six points ahead for Westminster.
38 per cent of respondents who said they were “certain to vote” in a Holyrood election tomorrow would vote SNP while 25 per cent said they would vote Labour. When asked the same question about the General Election, 33 per cent of those certain to vote said they would vote SNP while 27 per cent said they would vote Labour.
The Conservatives polled 15 per cent for Holyrood and 18 per cent for Westminster and the Lib Dems 15 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.
The poll results are “extraordinary”, according to leading political scientist Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University. The professor believes Labour’s handling of the al-Megrahi affair could be a factor in the SNP’s lead.
“When reason and emotion clash reason will win so long as the rational response is articulated clearly, coolly and consistently and I think that’s what the Scottish Government did and as this decision was explained, I think the public moved behind the SNP,” Mitchell said.
The Labour Party in Holyrood badly misjudged public feeling on the Megrahi release, the professor added, and Iain Gray could shoulder the blame from his Westminster colleagues for the political consequences.
“The fact that the Labour Party in London did not keep its Scottish party informed meant that the party in Holyrood went over the top and misread the public and I think mishandled it badly and have suffered consequently. It’ll be very interesting to see the reaction of MPs, many of whom will be worried about their seats in Scotland. I suspect many will point the finger at Iain Gray and Richard Baker and blame them for simply misreading the public mood and getting it quite wrong, miscalculating badly, badly,” he said.
A more worrying reason for the Labour Party’s poor Westminster polling, according to Mitchell, could be that the Scottish public believes the Tories will win the next General Election and see the SNP as a safer bet to defend Scotland’s interests in London.
“It’s one poll and we’ll have to wait and see what other polls say, it’s still early days. What it may signal, however, and this is the worry for Labour, is that the public now believes that the Tories are going to win anyway, that it’s not a battle between Labour and the Tories therefore the public in Scotland may be thinking which party is best placed to defend Scotland’s interests and that may be what we’re seeing.
“So it may simply be a combination of the Megrahi affair but also a perception that Labour won’t win, can’t win, so therefore we need to have a strong defence for Scotland and that may be what this poll is saying,” he said.
Welcoming the results, SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon MSP said: “These are really excellent poll ratings for the SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood. Not only do they demonstrate that the SNP Government is winning the debate in Holyrood but also building support for sending SNP MPs to fight Scotland’s corner in Westminster. They also show our vote is far more motivated than Labour’s.
“Voters are demonstrating that they respect a party that is prepared to take hard decisions and a party that stands up for protecting the jobs of Scottish workers and investment in Scottish public services.” The poll also suggests that Labour’s vote is less secure than that of the SNP. While 29 per cent of respondents said they would support Labour at Holyrood only 25 per cent of those who were certain to vote said they would vote Labour.
This indicates a degree of disillusionment with the party amongst supporters, some of whom are not sure to go out and vote on polling day.
“Those who are going to vote Labour are almost reluctant,” Mitchell commented. “There’s not strong support and that must be a worry for Labour. The SNP’s support is very strongly behind it at the moment, that’s clear. Labour’s support is pretty lukewarm and that ought to be a real worry for Labour. Again it may well be that Labour will suffer as much as anything because its own supporters just won’t turn out and a few percentage points can make a difference...There’s not a great deal of enthusiasm out there for Labour. If people are supporting it, it’s because they’ve always supported it. It’s kind of like its core support that it’s getting back to and Labour knows it needs to do more than that.” The results of the poll are based on a telephone survey of 1,000 adults between 20 and 31 August 2009. The figures are weighted by age, sex and working status using census data and tenure using Scottish Household Survey statistics.
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