Articles by John Curtice
There is a word that has been in very heavy use since the debate about the independence referendum caught fire last month. That word is “mandate”. Both sides have sought to justify their stance on how the referendum should be conducted by arguing their particular perspective is the one that is consistent with the mandate the electorate supposedly gave the SNP last May. Of course the idea that those who vote for a particular party endorse every one of the promises it has made during the election is little more than a convenient fiction. Nevertheless, it is much easier for a party to lay claim to the legitimate right to take a proposed action if it can show it is fulfilling a campaign promise. Conversely, as the Liberal Democrats have [...]
The war of the consultations has now been set in train. Two weeks after Michael Moore invited us all to tell him how we think the independence referendum should be conducted, Alex Salmond has asked us to tell him too – or perhaps even instead. Doubtless we can expect whoever manages to secure the most replies to claim theirs was the bigger and better exercise. But in truth, the consultation competition creates a potentially awkward dilemma for the two governments. Both of them ask similar questions of much the same public. So how will they be able to justify coming up with different answers? After all, doubtless many of those who decide to express their views will respond to both consultations. They thus should elicit much the same set of [...]
Well, I guess we should not have been surprised that eventually the UK Government would seek to influence how the independence referendum is conducted. After all, the unionist chorus demanding a Yes-No referendum sooner rather than later had become little short of deafening. In November the Tory Chancellor, George Osborne, told the BBC: “The uncertainty about independence, the uncertainty about what sort of referendum Alex Salmond wants, the complexity of the question that he wants to pose to the Scottish people, all those things …are adding to the economic uncertainty in Scotland.” Subsequently in her victory speech on being elected Scottish Labour leader in December, Johann Lamont – to whom belated congratulations on her success – demanded the SNP “should get on with it”, and that the referendum should be [...]
It seems to have come as a shock to many a journalist that people’s willingness to back independence might turn on whether they reckoned it would leave them better off or not. Surely nobody would be willing to sell their right to be British for as little as £500 a year, as suggested by the latest figures from ScotCen’s Scottish Social Attitudes Survey released earlier this month? Well, of course, hypothetical survey questions are just that – hypothetical. We will never know whether 65 per cent would actually vote for independence if they thought everyone would on average be £500 a year better off as a result – not least because there will never be consensus amongst the Scottish public as to what the financial consequences of independence would be. [...]








Exploiting opportunity
Johann Lamont’s or Willie Rennie’s? I guess your answer could well be, ‘Neither’. Both leaders certainly face a formidable challenge as their parties gather for their spring conferences in Dundee and Inverness respectively.
The two parties are both in the doldrums.
Three polls conducted this year on average put Labour on 28 per cent in Holyrood constituency voting intentions, trailing the SNP by no less than 20 points. The Liberal Democrats are in even bigger trouble – their average Holyrood rating is just 7 points. Both parties are just as weak now as they were twelve months ago when they received a thorough drubbing at the hands of the electorate.
Yet there is one crucial difference between their respective situations. Scottish Labour’s difficulties stem from sources close to home. The Scottish Liberal Democrats’ problems, in contrast, have been occasioned primarily by developments further afield.
While Holyrood Labour remains becalmed, the party south of the border has recovered relatively quickly from the severe drubbing it suffered in the Westminster election two years ago. True, the Westminster party has yet to establish a clear and consistent poll lead over the Conservatives, but at 38 per cent, its average UK-wide poll rating is as much as eight points up on what Labour secured in the 2010 ballot boxes. Unlike Holyrood Labour, Westminster Labour has at least managed to make itself a serious contender for power once more.
In contrast, the Liberal Democrats’ colleagues at Westminster are in dire straits. At 11 per cent, the party’s average support in UK-wide polls is...
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