Articles by John Curtice
Perhaps inevitably, the coincidence of the latest round of Scottish local elections with both a London Mayoral election and referendums on whether directly elected Mayors should also be introduced in ten of England’s largest provincial cities has stimulated discussion about whether directly elected Mayors – or Provosts – should be introduced north of the border too. Voters are much better served, advocates suggest, by a battle between big beasts such as Ken and Boris then they are by administrations led by comparative minnows such as Jenny and Gordon. In truth the comparison is hardly a fair one. The London election attracts interest and attention (though even then less than half of the capital bothers to vote) because of the size of the city, not because of the nature of the [...]
You could not make it up. Ever since the New Year our politicians have been arguing furiously about how an independence referendum should be conducted, while claiming what they really wanted to do was to debate the merits and demerits of independence. So what has happened – well, a row has broken out about how the public has been consulted and about how the referendum should be held. In short, politicians have now been arguing about the process by which people have been asked about the process! At this rate, one must wonder who will manage to be ready for the referendum in 2014, let alone earlier! At the heart of this row has been a preoccupation with numbers. The UK Government’s rather hasty consultation secured a little under 3,000 [...]
One of the reasons why Alex Salmond should want to keep the debate about ‘devo max’ going for as long as possible is because of its obvious potential to sow division between the unionist parties. After all, the Liberal Democrats can always be relied on to be keener to pursue more devolution than Labour, while on past form the Conservatives can always confidently be expected to bring up the rear. Yet in practice, the devo-max debate is not only exposing differences between the unionist parties, but within them too. So, for example, while Willie Rennie has invited Sir Menzies Campbell to develop a policy for ‘home rule’ (‘devo max’ by another name?), his predecessor as leader, Tavish Scott, has jumped the gun and joined the gallery of the great and [...]
When a political party wins an election and secures power, it usually celebrates and breathes a sigh of collective relief. After all, parties are but a vehicle for gaining power, and so winning an election (or two!) usually represents the summit of their ambition. What more is there for them to do but enjoy the fruits of victory and set about using office to pursue their policy goals? That, however, is not a luxury afforded to the SNP. Winning an overall majority last May was a stupendous achievement. Yet all it has done is to present the party with an even bigger electoral battle to fight – to persuade their fellow Scots that they should turn the party’s dream of an independent Scotland into reality. While Nationalist activists still have [...]
Expectation management
So Scotland’s voters have turned up another surprise. Last year they voted for the SNP in sufficient numbers that the Nationalists were rewarded with an overall majority despite the use of a system of proportional representation. This year, rather than confirming the exuberance and confidence surrounding the nationalist cause, they stepped back, leaving the SNP barely ahead of Labour in terms of both votes and seats.
In truth it never seemed likely that the SNP would emulate last year’s remarkable success in full. That triumph was the product of a disastrous opposition campaign and an uninspiring Labour front bench that presented little challenge to an SNP ministerial team and leader that exuded charisma and confidence.
It was achieved too in a context, a Scottish parliamentary election, in which voters have always been relatively inclined to back the SNP.
Even a moderately competent Labour campaign this time around could be expected to bring a richer reward than twelve months ago.
Whether voters would prove as inclined to vote SNP in local elections that did not take place on the same day as a Holyrood contest was always a major unknown. Meanwhile as it happened, Labour’s current standing at Westminster provided the party north of the border with a potentially helpful following wind.
Moreover, it would be a mistake to belittle what the SNP did manage to achieve. Their (according to their own tally) 32.3 per cent of the Scotland-wide first preference vote represented the party’s highest ever share in a local election contest. The party outpolled Labour, albeit narrowly, in terms of local election votes for the first time ever. Thanks to the use of proportional representation, the Nationalists’ performance translated into a record number of council seats too. These are achievements that few would have imagined possible just a few short years ago.
Yet despite all these considerations, there is still a sense that t...
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