Gap narrows between three main parties

by Apr 27, 2010 No Comments
The latest ComRes poll has found just a four point gap between the three main parties, with the Conservatives top with 32 per cent, the Lib Dems second with 31 per cent, Labour in third place with 28 per cent and 9 per cent of those polled voting for another party.
Compared to Sunday’s ComRes poll, the Conservatives have dropped two per cent, which seems to have been picked up by the Lib Dems as the Labour and ‘other’ vote percentages have stayed the same.
In addition, the poll has found that turnout for this year’s vote has the potential to be higher than that of the 2005 General Election, with 69 per cent of those polled stating they are ‘absolutely certain’ to use their vote, and of this percentage, 81 per cent of people over the age of 65 and 42 per cent of 18 to 24 year olds plan to vote next week.
Following the first leaders’ debate, between 6 and 7 million people ‘absolutely certain’ to vote were still undecided as to which party to vote for. However, this number has now almost halved, currently standing at 3.3 million.
The poll also finds that more than one in five 2005 Labour voters – 21 per cent –and one in ten former Conservative voters – 8 per cent – now plan to vote Lib Dem. Of those who did not vote in 2005, the Lib Dems have attracted around twice the voters of the two other leading parties.
On attitudes towards a hung parliament, the poll found that 72 per cent favour a majority government while just 20 per cent preferred a hung parliament. 62 per cent of Lib Dem voters do not want a hung parliament.
Of the 20 per cent in favour of a hung parliament, 56 per cent of these would like to see a Labour government with support from the Lib Dems, 27 per cent would like to see a Conservative government with Lib Dem support and 17 per cent were unsure or would like to see another option.
Alternative Vote poll shows Conservatives in third place
The poll also asked respondents how they would vote under the Alternative Vote (AV) system, which Labour has proposed to put to a referendum. This system would see the votes of second preferences redistributed if no candidate won 50 per cent of the vote. The results found that 68 per cent of Labour supporters and 41 per cent of Conservatives would give a second preference vote to the Lib Dems, while 35 per cent of Lib Dem voters would give second preference to Labour and 28 per cent would give a second vote to the Conservatives.
In an article in today’s Independent, John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, says that using the AV system, the Lib Dems could win up to double the number of seats than they currently can. Using the poll results above, he calculates that AV would see the Conservatives winning 25.1 per cent of available seats in the House of Commons, Labour winning 36.6 per cent and the Lib Dems winning 33.3 per cent.

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